The path for this is mostly over the Bay, but does include the southwest side of Santa Cruz. The rank and duration and path have me feeling the odds are good enough I'll try it from the entrance to Natural Bridges State Park, and not try to get down to Moss Landing closer to the centerline. The weather is iffy; clouds are coming in late tonight, but a tongue of clear sky is still predicted for event time.
Advice, use the shortest integration you can see the star on every frame. Our duration in Santa Cruz is likely only a fraction of a second. We have a dark moonless sky. Maybe this will work, although clouds are due to come in around event time.
Alt=42, Az=152 in SE, to the right of Porrima (beta Vir), above beak of Corvus.
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I got a recording from near the entrance to Natural Bridges, on the access road from the north, 37 ft south of the 2nd to last palm tree, on the west side of the road. 8x setting. Skies were clear but perhaps a bit of cirrus over the target late in the recording
I first tried a 12-aperture set. The deepest drop was right at the predicted time, but at proper depth was only a single 1/6s integration. PyOTE would not find the event until I widened the D and R interval. The light curve is too noisy to have confidence in the event here. But it's intriguing that this, the most obvious dip in the light curve, happens at the predicted time. So, I relabelled the folder with this first analysis at 20240309Gawain1. I will then do a new run in PyMovie and then PyOTE using the TME method and the PyMovie software will then automatically make another 20240309Gawain folder for this second analysis and it won't be into the same folder.
First analysis: 12 Circular Static Apertures for target
magDrop report: percentDrop: 60.5 magDrop: 1.008 +/- 0.784 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 1.73
D time: [07:57:52.8260]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1530} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.5857} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 1.4700} seconds
R time: [07:57:53.9460]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1530} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.5857} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 1.4700} seconds
Duration (R - D): 1.1200 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2768} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.8127} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 1.7788} seconds
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2nd Analysis: Using TME Method
I then tried the TME method, which chooses optimal patterns of the pixels for each individual integration, rather than a fixed circular shape. I used a 222 frame Fourier finder to start with. This time, I get the same D-R interval of 1.12s, but this time it easily passes the 5-sigma test, whereas the circular apertures none even satisfy a 2-sigma test, barely a 1-sigma level was passed. The TME method worked well.
magDrop report: percentDrop: 73.0 magDrop: 1.420 +/- 0.707 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 2.73
D time: [07:57:52.8260]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0645} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1803} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4781} seconds
R time: [07:57:53.9460]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0645} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1803} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4781} seconds
Duration (R - D): 1.1200 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1027} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2609} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.5829} seconds
report sent 3/10/24
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I got a pretty obvious event, pyote says .9 sec., I recorded at 16x.
I used TME apertures, but pyote was finicky about it.
I tried manually placing D and R, with wide margins, but it either couldn't find an event or failed false positive. I then gave it a min max of 3 and 10 event to find, and it found the event and passed false pos but not by a lot. I also tried a 12 stack of static apertures but did not get better results, they didn't pass false positive (meaning they passed 3 and 4 sigma but not 5). TME passed 3,4,5 sigma, timings below:
magDrop report: percentDrop: 87.5 magDrop: 2.259 +/- 1.696 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 3.69
D time: [07:57:53.1134]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0676} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1798} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.3520} seconds
R time: [07:57:54.0465]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0676} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1798} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.3520} seconds
Duration (R - D): 0.9331 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1007} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2318} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4420} seconds
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