The path for this is through Watsonville, but we're inside the northern limit and the rank is such that on the centerline the odds are 73%, but still 55% from my site off Spring Street, and 50% for Karl. It's difficult, though, as the altitude is only 17 degrees, in Ophiuchus in the southwest at azimuth = 226. 3 hours earlier, is a very similar difficult Erida occultation also at 17 degrees altitude of a 14.0 star. The fact that there are two events, and also that this was the best dawn to photograph the alignment of all the planets in the morning sky, and on a weekend, makes it intriguing. The drop is 2 magnitudes, so should be obvious. 2.4 seconds, but dim at 17 degrees altitude, so will need very clear skies, heavy humid almost-fog, won't do.
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Tough event. I had perfect conditions at upper UCSC bike trail crossing. But not perfect enough. I could see the target star on most of my 16x integration frames. But, too faint to get good enough readings for each integration and say whether it was a hit or a miss. PyOTE refused to find the event, if it was even real. 52% odds of a hit, so expectations were open.
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