The Occultaton of a R=15.2 Star by Plutino KBO (55638) 2002 VE95

Feb 10, 2024 at 7:33:13pm PST

 

This is a rare, valuable Plutino KBO event. Plutino's are objects in a 3:2 resonance with Neptune. But it'll be tough; R=15.2 mag. It may take up to a 2s integration to get it. Be generous! It should last 13s and any detection of an occultation will improve the orbit by a big amount. Don't scrimp on timing accuracy. Make sure you can see the target. Odds only 10%, but that means glory if you hit jackpot. Wikipedia page. OWcloud page

This is a Plutino KBO. We know very little about these. We have only 2 KBO's with close up photos, from the New Horizons Mission (Pluto and Arreketh). Astronomers want to learn anything they can about them. Do they have moons more commonly? Are they spherical rubble piles? Are they rigid frozen Nitrogen objects? What are they made of (density, from moon discoveries). Occultations can tell us a lot, but first we need accurate orbits. So this event, while unlikely, is worth putting effort into. It did not show on my OW predictions, perhaps because the magnitude was too dim at R=15.2 and even dimmer in visual G=16.8. To put together the charts below, I went to the LuckyStar prediction page, clicked on our location and that pops up the box with the local predictions. The wide red dashed line suggested the event could be as much as a minute early or late. I chose to do 4 minutes on either side of the predicted time. The target does(?) show up on the UCAC4 chart I made, but I will have to look more closely if the star I clicked on for the C2A chart is the real target. In any case, the SDSS Aladin chart shows much deeper and shows the neighboring stars. I note the brightnesses of the stars is not entirely consistent with what my Finder image showed. Perhaps the SDSS photos are in V or G, not R, and the Watec is apparently closer to R than V or G.

The target star is very faint, so likely rather distant, and as it is in the middle of the plane of the Milky Way, interstellar dust reddening is likely. That's good. It may help us with our red-sensitive cameras.

The LuckyStar predicted duration is 13.4 s and the depth of the drop is 4.7 magnitudes.

 

The OWc map is below. There are two prediction orbits on the OWc page

map from the OWc webpage

       

 

Results:

Richard Nolthenius PyOTE log file

Despite being late home from my activities and the gym, I was able to get the planning page done and gear thrown into the RAV4 and drive quickly up to the site. I set up at the mtn bike crossing at the Upper Meadow of UCSC, on the asphalt just off the shoulder on the west side. I got there with only 19 minutes till the occultation. I got set up as absolutely rapidly as possible, and everything went perfectly. I was on target and ready to record with 10 minutes to spare. I chose the site in hopes of a darker sky so I could do a long integration. R=15.2 is fainter than any event I've tried on the 8SE scopes. However, conditions looked about as perfect as could be. No clouds, no wind, no moon, good 46 degree altitude. I thought 2 second integrations would reveal the star reasonably well, and 1sec if I was lucky At the scope. I tried 2 s (128x), but the sky was too bright, so backed off to 64x; a bit over 1s integration.

For analysis, I made a 444 frame Fourier Finder and used that finder to position the apertures. I used TME snap-to apertures (10px was the solution) on the two reference stars, brighter but not saturated, compared to the target. I tried using a TME aperture on the target, but then deleted that since it spilled onto the neighbors, and went instead with a static circular aperture and tightened the radius to only 3px to exclude the neighbors, although I'm not totally sure the faintest of the 3 star cluster that included the target, was totally excluded.

The light curves below look like a clear occultation, about 1.5 asteroid diameters later than the predicted time, and within 1/2 second duration of the predicted centerline duration. However, the light curve looks unusual, with a deep to zero integration at the end of the event, and a deep partial occcultation for most of it. There's also a suspicious complimentary shallower depth drop for about 6 seconds a few seconds after the primary, but not by itself convincing. I think a binary star might be involved? I'll let LuckyStar astronomers sort it out.

Long 122 04 46.29 W
Lat 37 01 03.39 N
Elev 1126 ft


magDrop report: percentDrop: 78.3 magDrop: 1.660 +/- 0.456 (0.95 ci)

DNR: 2.68

D time: [03:33:38.6027]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4220} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 1.1912} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 3.0874} seconds

R time: [03:33:52.9122]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4220} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 1.1912} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 3.0874} seconds

Duration (R - D): 14.3095 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.6389} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 1.5259} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 3.3144} seconds

I've inserted full brightness and half brightness lines to help visually decide if a binary star might be involved.

False positive test satisfied rather well for such a faint target. I'm encouraged! Stars this faint are do-able with enough data points involved.

This is just to aid Kirk in ID'ing the target in his video capture.

 
   

 

It looks like we got lucky and got the occultation; 14s long, as was most likely given the available estimates on this object.

 

Kirk Bender

I recorded the event at 64x, but I did do a recording of 128x after the event and after transferring it wasn't as totally washed out as it ooked on my small monitor, perhaps it was doable at 128x. I did have some bad timestamps but these were after the event and went away after block integration in pyote. I first did a static aperture for the target, same as you at mask size. I first did a static aperture for the target, same as you at mask size 3, but it looked noisy so I did a 12-stack of static apertures and found hat size 4.3 gave a more clear event in pyote. I did smoothing against a tracking star, using the metric intervals to exclude the event. I also  did another run with no smoothing and the D and R timings were exactly the same, to 4 decimal places, although the containment intervals were slightly smaller with no smoothing. Here's the timings with smoothing, auto block integration:

I manually block integrated by 16 points instead of auto block 32, to have more points to work with. got these timings with smoothing, closer to your times and smaller containment intervals. I got these timings with smoothing, closer to your times and smaller containment intervals.

magDrop report: percentDrop: 71.2  magDrop: 1.350  +/- 0.375  (0.95 ci)

DNR: 1.25

D time: [03:33:38.0530]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals:  {+/- 0.6751} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals:  {+/- 4.2584} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals:  {+/- 10.2924} seconds

R time: [03:33:53.5349]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals:  {+/- 0.6751} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals:  {+/- 4.2584} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals:  {+/- 10.2924} seconds

Duration (R - D): 15.4819 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals:  {+/- 1.5257} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals:  {+/- 4.9914} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals:  {+/- 10.8945} seconds

 

Stars were left out of focus, due to lack of time, blending the target with two fainter companions visible in the SDSS image. Because of the blend, the depth of the occultation was significantly less, and hurt the FP test. An artificat of the blend with the close neighbors.

Target in gold.

PyMovie target in gold.

These timings agree very well with mine, even though the FP test doesn't get cleanly passed, due to the shallowed compromised depth from the target blended with neighbors.

FP test not passed. And if looked at w/o further information, would not be accepted. HOWEVER, I stress once again, PROPER statistical treatments always use Baye's Theorem. And Bayes Theorem is not included in the software here. Bayes theorem means we include "knowns" in our context; which is my own observations which clearly passed the FP test, and had the proper duration to within timing errors, and within 1 diameter of the predicted time; well within the error budget of the predictions. And finally, that Kirk was only 4 miles from my own track; small compared to the diameter of the object.