This is a very high rank event, with southern limit just nicking West Cliff. Wide path includes all the Santa Cruz Mtns. 7.9s duration allows some integration to get the event. However, the hard thing is that the drop is only dR=0.35, so I would caution against getting too close to the limit line for lack of S/N to detect that drop. I will plan to try from the top of Rodeo Gulch. Karl should be good; with a duration near 6 sec. However the target star is R=13.9, V=14.9 so that's why the drop is shallow. I worry about Kirk from home perhaps not having a long enough event to detect is reliably. Perhaps consider upper meadow UCSC?
The object should fade from R=12.95 to 13.3 for up to a few seconds depending on how deep into the path you are. I'd recommend integrating at 32x or ~1/2 sec integrations.
Alt=21, Az=274. In the west; I can't see that direction from home anyway. I need to drive for this. The altitude is low enough that a good horizon will be needed. 88% moon is far away in the east, but will make for a bright sky.
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Through thin cirrus, Kirk and I both got recordings. Neither of us got clean enough data through the clouds to see this small drop faint star event.
This is a Fourier finder image, contrast adjusted. The actual target star was not this easily bright above the background. |
Increasing cloud cover during recording. |
I expected about a 2-3 second event, given the high confidence in the predictions, centered on the black bar. The dip earlier is intriguing... |
So I reference adjusted with the best unsaturated comparison star I could find. Still no event is obvious. But... |
I gave a best guess when the event edges were, allowed time around then for the software to decided... and did make a detection, but... it was too long; 8s, and badly centered. And... |
The PyOTE detectability test says for a 0.35 magnitude drop, a 2.5s event is undetectable given the noise level.
It fails the FP test pretty badly. I think the only conclusion is: "No Observation". |
I don't see an event in my Arethusa data, 32x from the berm, noisy data. I used TME apertures in pymovie.
Obvious undulation due to clouds in the curves, I tried smoothing
against a tracking star, including horizontal offset, didn't help to
show an event. No obvious event by eye, and Pyote can't find an event.
Detectability tool says:
Undetectability reached at magDrop: 0.30 duration=: 11.200. An event of duration 11.250 seconds with magDrop: 0.3 is likely
detectable. 1.5x predicted 7.9s max duration = 11.85s, and I was not near the center
so likely I wouldn't get max duration. So it looks doubtful to be
detectable, and a miss in the sense of no apparent event.
Detectable means that PyOTE can find an event, regardless of whether it passes the FP test. So, 'undetectable' means 'no observation' here. Just too tough.
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