This is a good long event at 1.1 sec duration, and full drop to zero. Alt=29, in Scutum in the SW. The path misses Santa Cruz but is good just north of Moss Landing
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I carpooled Kirk down to Moss Landing, under mostly clear skies with just a bit of cirrus here and there. I placed Kirk at Stuve Rd, inside the northern limit. I drove to Molera Rd and Hwy 1, closer to the centerline. The air was murky, we had a 93% waning moon, and so skies were brighter than ideal.
I had hoped we'd be able to record this at 4x, given the decent altitude and 12.7 magnitude, but the target was invisible at 4x. Even at 8x it was not easy to follow in the bright sky. I left the gamma=0.7 setting I've been using lately, and the sky histogram was not clipped. The light curve is noisy, but there's a 0.96s event identified at the correct prediction time, at the 3.8 sigma level.
magDrop report: percentDrop: 76.7 magDrop: 1.580 +/- 0.947 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 2.42
D time: [03:44:46.0621]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0716} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2215} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.5749} seconds
R time: [03:44:47.0221]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0716} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2215} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.5749} seconds
Duration (R - D): 0.9600 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1126} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2996} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.6822} seconds
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During the event time, the sky counts and target counts overlap. |
Event passes the False Positive level but only at the 3.7 sigma level. The event therefore has a probability of .00018 chance of being a false positive. Even less, since there's very low additional odds that during the 3.5 minutes of recording, that the 1s event would sit on the actual predicted event prediction (roughly 1/200 chance of overlap). 1/200 x .00018 = 1 chance in 1.1 million of being a false positive. |
I'd be confident this is a real event. When convolved with the odds that during the 3.5 minutes of recording that there would be a 1s event sitting on the actual event time, is an additional ~1 chance in 200. So, (1/200) x .00018 = 1/1,111,111 or about 1 chance in 1.1 million of being a false positive at the correct time.
