This event is low odds from downtown Santa Cruz. It's better from Davenport area; 66-71% (if you believe the odds; I've learned the hard way they're probably less certain than advertised). It's a low rank event. Odds from Santa Cruz are near zero. I'm reluctantly thinking of going ahead and sacrificing sleep and driving to Shark Fin cove to try this one and the next one which is only 18 minutes later and is on the ~centerline from the same spot. Kirk's laid down an icon north of Davenport for both events, giving us some separation for both.
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We had clear dry skies and got both events, both Kirk and I. For me, it looked on the live monitor like a ~0.7s positive. Some wind shake caused a few drop outs on the brighter reference stars but not at the time of the occultation. I was fairly protected by my car. Clear 1s event on reductions. Target dropped to barely above the sky level. The event was quite early; 4s early, which is nearly 4 asteroid diameters early. I took care to click on my site on OWc map to get the predicted time at my site and not my home. Still, 4s early.
Done at 4x, start at 10:01:23 UT, end at 10:04:09 UT.
magDrop report: percentDrop: 87.0 magDrop: 2.216 +/- 0.542 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 3.47
D time: [10:03:00.5421]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0179} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0469} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0947} seconds
R time: [10:03:01.5393]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0179} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0469} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0947} seconds
Duration (R - D): 0.9972 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0270} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0613} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.1108} seconds
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Apparently I got a miss for 2000 ON37, 4x, on Davenport Landing Road, next to Hwy1. No apparent event, the target level was well above background. Although I had the scope low next to the car to shield from wind, there was some significant wind shake on the recording, but I used dynamic apertures in pymovie and it did not lose tracking. The tracking stars showed a lot of dips, I smoothed the target against one, but no event stood out. Detectability test said an event as short as 0.3 sec should be detectable, max predicted was 1.22 sec and 5.5 mag drop.
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