Alt=17, Az=212. In Scorpius, just 1 degree below Antares and 1 degree left of globular cluster M4.
Tough; only 17 deg up, and lasts only 0.5s. But high rank. Karl's on the northern limit. Kirk and I are well inside south of the centerline. But I cannot see in that direction so I will drive up to Westlake for it.
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I set up on the north side of Westlake below UCSC. Conditions were very clear and clean air. Alt=17 however is still not great, and I'm looking south over Santa Cruz. I played with gamma from 0.80 to 1.00 and settled back on 1.00. I played with recording brightness, sky contrast with target was still low at all settings at 8x. I worried 16x would only have 1 single drop and not pass the detection. At 8x I could get 3-4 points in the occultation and hopefully get a detection, which I did. However, the NIE sigma was only 2.1, so barely passed the test. But, it was less than 1 sec from the predicted time, and regardless of min=6 points or min=3 points, the event was detected with identical times and confidence.
Long=122 02 42.84 Lat=36 58 36.91 elev=81m
Reviewing the data of Kirk and Karl - it is Kirk's miss that is most anomalous, since my event was almost 1s and Kirk was only about 2km cross track closer to the southern limit than I was. But if the asteroid is oblong it might give a short event for Kirk and still a miss for Karl. But both had suspicious single point drops suspiciously close to my event in time. Norm suggested "we'll see how it plots up". I'm submitting my report on 10/31/25.
magDrop report: percentDrop: 70.2 magDrop: 1.313 +/- 0.261 (0.95 ci)
DNR: 1.40
D time: [05:08:36.1497]
D: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0634} seconds
D: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2075} seconds
D: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4914} seconds
R time: [05:08:37.1097]
R: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0634} seconds
R: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2075} seconds
R: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4914} seconds
Duration (R - D): 0.9600 seconds
Duration: 0.6800 containment intervals: {+/- 0.0974} seconds
Duration: 0.9500 containment intervals: {+/- 0.2524} seconds
Duration: 0.9973 containment intervals: {+/- 0.4920} seconds
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No apparent event for 2000 AG138, 8x from home. Noisy light curves. I tried several size masks but no clear event. With some sizes it found an event 24 seconds after predicted, but with 1-0.5 NIE sigma. There are some low points near the predicted time, but there are other points as low or lower throughout. A mask size of 2.4 gave the deepest points near predicted time, but PyOTE could not find an event, saying "No event fitting search criteria could be found.", even with trimming nearer the predicted time. Max predicted duration was 0.53s, and PyOTE detectability tool reported an event of duration 0.540s would likely be detectable. Maybe not a miss since you got an event and I was only 0.6km (RN - no, not 0.6km. I was 1.7 mi or 2.7 km cross-track north of KB and deeper into the path. My home was 0.6km track north of KB, but I did not observe from home) away, but my data is too noisy to tell.
The drop in my data that's 8 points later than the predicted line is at 05:08:36.0766. The signal is value=11.5 at that point. There are several single points lower than that throughout the curve though. My point is a little before RN's D at 05:08:36.1497, but within the confidence intervals.
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RN: KvA observed from home. The one dip after the predicted time is suspicious, since RN's event was also late. Cannot tell from the submitted PyMovie masks whether they were optimal or perhaps too big and hence noisier than necessary. Karl's location was about .1s after the OWc time clicks over to 5:08:36. Frustrating that OWd and OWc don't give event times to a fraction of a second.
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