This is a narrow track event of medium rank, and Cabrillo Observatory is inside the northern 1-sigma zone. Very unlikely for Kirk, Karl, Bernard. RUWE is 3.95, so odds of a miss are high. Also, the duration is only 0.2s.
Alt=54, Az=110 in Aries
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I tried this from Cabrillo Observatory, also there was Will. I used the 8SE. Bright sky, 1x setting, imperfect recording levels and contrast, but still, it looks like a pretty sure miss. A hit of 0.2 sec would be 10 fields at zero, and none were at zero near the predicted time. Clearly a miss. I stepped through in PyMovie field by field for several seconds on either side of the predicted time, to verify that there were no two consecutive fields that looked like they were missing the star. The speckles in the sky were due to the fact this happened before the crucial learning moment I had a couple of weeks ago, that lowering the contrast would significantly improve the star/sky contrast, and that trying to make the star brighter by just raising the recording level is a mistake as it causes poor sky subtraction and noisier curves. Best to get the sky darkened at the recording level, even if the star is a bit less bright.
Because of the bright sky and low star counts, PyMovie had some trouble at times not jumping to a hot pixel and wrecking the tracking for later frames. I ended up just doing a .csv file that started a couple seconds before the predicted time, although as I said, I watched the video play during the longer recording period and there were no possible 'events' in reasonable distance from the target.
A miss.
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